Altman Z-Score Risk Zones (2026)
The Altman Z-Score categorizes companies into three distinct financial health zones:
| Z-Score Range | Risk Zone | Probability of Insolvency |
|---|---|---|
| Z > 2.99 | Safe Zone | Negligible risk of financial distress within 2 years |
| 1.81 ≤ Z ≤ 2.99 | Grey Zone | Moderate risk; warning sign requiring close monitoring |
| Z < 1.81 | Distress Zone | High probability of bankruptcy / debt default |
Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy Prediction Zones
- Safe Zone (Z > 2.99): Financially healthy balance sheet with low risk of insolvency within 2 years.
- Grey Zone (1.81 ≤ Z ≤ 2.99): Moderate distress risk; requires close credit monitoring.
- Distress Zone (Z < 1.81): High probability of corporate default, debt restructuring, or bankruptcy.
5-Ratio Model Breakdown for Manufacturing Firms
- X1 (Working Capital / Assets * 1.2): Short-term liquidity buffer.
- X2 (Retained Earnings / Assets * 1.4): Cumulative profitability over company lifespan.
- X3 (EBIT / Assets * 3.3): Operating earning power (highest weight multiplier of 3.3).
- X4 (Market Cap / Liabilities * 0.6): Equity market solvency cover.
- X5 (Sales / Assets * 0.999): Asset turnover velocity.
Z-Score Negative Screen
Use Altman Z-Score as a negative filter before buying turnaround stocks. Avoid companies in the Distress Zone (Z < 1.81) to stay clear of value traps and bond defaults.